Market Insights: Trends and Predictions for UK Property in the Second Half of 2024

The UK property market has navigated a period of uncertainty in 2024.

Following the highs of 2021 and 2022, fuelled by pandemic-driven demand and stamp duty cuts, the year began with contrasting predictions.

As we head into the second half, let's delve into the current trends and unpack expert forecasts for the remainder of 2024.

A Market in Transition

There's a shift in gear.

Gone are the days of intense competition and rapid price growth. Affordability concerns due to rising inflation and mortgage rates have dampened buyer enthusiasm.

This has led to a more balanced market, with increased property availability (https://www.struttandparker.com/blog/2024-whats-on-the-cards-for-the-housing-market-this-year) compared to the previous year.

House Prices: Stagnation or Slight Decline?

House price growth has slowed significantly.

While some reports suggest a flatlining market (https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/), others anticipate a slight decline of between 1% and 3% for the year (https://www.struttandparker.com/blog/2024-whats-on-the-cards-for-the-housing-market-this-year).

This aligns with Cebr's forecast of a 1.9% annual decline (https://www.struttandparker.com/blog/2024-whats-on-the-cards-for-the-housing-market-this-year).

Regional Variations

The impact isn't uniform across the UK.

While southern England might see continued price drops, other regions are experiencing a rise in house prices (https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/).

This highlights the importance of localised market analysis when making property decisions.

Opportunities for First-Time Buyers

The changing market dynamics present a potential silver lining for first-time buyers.

With fewer investor competitors, particularly buy-to-let landlords facing higher mortgage rates, there could be more opportunities to secure that first property.

Rental Market: Continued Growth

The rental market presents a different picture.

While rental growth might moderate compared to the previous year (https://www.abrdn.com/en-gb/institutional/insights-and-research/uk-real-estate-market-outlook-q2-2024), it's expected to remain positive, particularly in prime locations (https://www.abrdn.com/en-gb/institutional/insights-and-research/uk-real-estate-market-outlook-q2-2024).

This is due to a combination of factors, including constrained supply and a recalibration of tenant needs in a slower economic climate.

The Outlook: A Cautious Optimism

The second half of 2024 is likely to see a continuation of the current trends.

Property price growth is unlikely to return to pre-2023 levels, but a significant correction is also not anticipated.

Experts predict a market recalibration, with prices reaching "fair value" by year-end (https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/).

Factors to Consider

The upcoming general election and potential Bank of England interest rate cuts are factors that could influence the market in the latter half of the year.

A stable economic outlook and falling inflation could reignite buyer confidence.

The Final Word

The UK property market in the second half of 2024 is likely to be characterised by stability and a focus on affordability.

While first-time buyers may find some advantages, investors might need to adjust their strategies.

Regardless of your position in the market, staying informed about the latest trends and predictions will empower you to make informed decisions.